Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →81.8%
Porto
14.8%
Draw
3.3%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
2.25
Porto
vs
0.30
Tondela
Markets
BTTS23.8%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.572.8%
Over 2.547.1%
Over 3.525.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
19.7%
1-0
17.1%
3-0
14.8%
4-0
8.3%
0-0
8.2%
2-1
6.0%
1-1
5.7%
3-1
4.5%
5-0
3.8%
4-1
2.5%
0-1
1.9%
5-1
1.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).