Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.7%
Arouca
23.9%
Draw
38.5%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43
Arouca
vs
1.45
Nacional
Markets
BTTS57.6%
Over 0.594.9%
Over 1.577.6%
Over 2.554.8%
Over 3.532.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.1%
0-1
8.7%
1-0
8.6%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
6.0%
0-2
5.9%
2-0
5.8%
0-0
5.1%
1-3
4.1%
3-1
4.0%
2-3
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).