Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.1%
Moreirense
24.7%
Draw
17.1%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.53
Moreirense
vs
0.68
Tondela
Markets
BTTS38.3%
Over 0.589.6%
Over 1.564.3%
Over 2.538.1%
Over 3.518.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.2%
2-0
12.8%
1-1
10.9%
0-0
10.4%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.0%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
4.5%
1-2
3.9%
2-2
3.0%
0-2
2.6%
4-0
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).