Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.0%
Manchester City
25.6%
Draw
22.4%
Newcastle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.86
Manchester City
vs
1.17
Newcastle
Markets
BTTS59.6%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.581.9%
Over 2.558.2%
Over 3.535.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.4%
1-0
7.6%
0-0
6.3%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
6.1%
2-2
5.7%
3-0
5.2%
0-1
4.2%
3-2
3.5%
0-2
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).