Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.0%
Liverpool
26.7%
Draw
40.3%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.47
Liverpool
vs
1.64
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS63.5%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.583.1%
Over 2.560.1%
Over 3.537.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.2%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
2-2
6.5%
0-2
6.0%
0-0
6.0%
0-1
5.8%
1-0
5.1%
2-0
4.8%
1-3
4.8%
3-1
3.9%
2-3
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).