Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →77.8%
Derby
14.6%
Draw
7.6%
Bristol Rvs
Expected Goals (xG)
2.28
Derby
vs
0.53
Bristol Rvs
Markets
BTTS36.1%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.576.3%
Over 2.553.1%
Over 3.530.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.7%
1-0
14.4%
3-0
11.9%
2-1
8.3%
4-0
6.8%
1-1
6.7%
3-1
6.3%
0-0
5.5%
0-1
3.8%
4-1
3.6%
5-0
3.1%
2-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).