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03 May 2026 · 00:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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47.8%
Casa Pia
30.0%
Draw
22.2%
Tondela

Expected Goals (xG)

1.34

Casa Pia

vs
0.83

Tondela

Markets

BTTS42.8%
Over 0.587.7%
Over 1.564.9%
Over 2.537.1%
Over 3.517.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
14.3%
1-1
13.7%
0-0
12.3%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.5%
1-2
5.3%
3-0
4.6%
0-2
3.9%
3-1
3.8%
2-2
3.5%
3-2
1.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).