Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.8%
Arsenal
24.4%
Draw
13.7%
Brighton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.90
Arsenal
vs
0.80
Brighton
Markets
BTTS48.2%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.576.4%
Over 2.550.5%
Over 3.528.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.1%
1-1
11.7%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.2%
3-0
7.7%
3-1
6.1%
1-2
4.1%
0-1
4.0%
2-2
3.9%
4-0
3.6%
4-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).