Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.0%
Aston Villa
32.8%
Draw
29.3%
Everton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Aston Villa
vs
1.01
Everton
Markets
BTTS45.9%
Over 0.587.0%
Over 1.566.2%
Over 2.537.5%
Over 3.517.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
15.2%
0-0
13.0%
1-0
11.4%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
7.9%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
4.0%
3-1
3.1%
3-0
3.1%
1-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).