Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →76.8%
Derby
15.8%
Draw
7.4%
Port Vale
Expected Goals (xG)
2.12
Derby
vs
0.46
Port Vale
Markets
BTTS31.8%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.572.2%
Over 2.547.5%
Over 3.525.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
17.0%
1-0
16.7%
3-0
12.0%
2-1
7.8%
0-0
7.0%
1-1
6.8%
4-0
6.4%
3-1
5.5%
0-1
4.1%
4-1
2.9%
5-0
2.7%
2-2
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).