Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →19.2%
Newport County
20.0%
Draw
60.9%
Swindon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.06
Newport County
vs
2.06
Swindon
Markets
BTTS56.4%
Over 0.596.0%
Over 1.581.3%
Over 2.560.2%
Over 3.537.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
9.9%
0-1
9.6%
0-2
9.4%
1-1
9.2%
1-3
6.8%
0-3
6.5%
2-2
5.2%
1-0
5.1%
2-1
5.1%
0-0
4.0%
2-3
3.6%
1-4
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).