Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.7%
Crewe
22.4%
Draw
20.9%
Cheltenham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.76
Crewe
vs
0.96
Cheltenham
Markets
BTTS50.7%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.575.1%
Over 2.551.3%
Over 3.529.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.0%
1-1
10.6%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.8%
0-1
6.8%
0-0
6.1%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
5.8%
1-2
5.3%
2-2
4.7%
0-2
3.0%
3-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).