Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →20.9%
Carlisle
19.9%
Draw
59.2%
Reading
Expected Goals (xG)
1.07
Carlisle
vs
1.97
Reading
Markets
BTTS55.6%
Over 0.596.1%
Over 1.579.8%
Over 2.558.6%
Over 3.536.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
10.3%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.3%
1-1
9.2%
1-3
6.5%
0-3
6.1%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
5.4%
2-2
5.3%
0-0
3.9%
2-3
3.5%
1-4
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).