Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.6%
Vallecano
28.3%
Draw
18.0%
Alcorcon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.33
Vallecano
vs
0.64
Alcorcon
Markets
BTTS34.6%
Over 0.586.2%
Over 1.558.5%
Over 2.531.5%
Over 3.513.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.7%
0-0
13.8%
2-0
12.4%
1-1
11.7%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
7.9%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
3.8%
3-1
3.5%
0-2
2.8%
2-2
2.5%
4-0
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).