Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.9%
Carlisle
23.6%
Draw
38.5%
Sutton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.46
Carlisle
vs
1.47
Sutton
Markets
BTTS58.6%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.578.5%
Over 2.556.0%
Over 3.533.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.0%
1-2
8.4%
0-1
8.4%
2-1
8.4%
1-0
8.3%
2-2
6.1%
0-2
5.8%
2-0
5.7%
0-0
4.9%
1-3
4.1%
3-1
4.1%
2-3
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).