Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.6%
Stoke
30.3%
Draw
22.1%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.33
Stoke
vs
0.83
Luton
Markets
BTTS42.5%
Over 0.587.4%
Over 1.564.7%
Over 2.536.7%
Over 3.517.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.3%
1-1
13.8%
0-0
12.6%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.5%
1-2
5.3%
3-0
4.6%
0-2
3.9%
3-1
3.8%
2-2
3.5%
3-2
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).