Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.6%
Chelsea
26.6%
Draw
21.8%
Brighton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.76
Chelsea
vs
1.08
Brighton
Markets
BTTS56.2%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.579.1%
Over 2.554.0%
Over 3.531.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
9.0%
1-0
8.7%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
6.0%
3-1
5.7%
2-2
5.3%
3-0
5.3%
0-1
4.8%
0-2
3.4%
3-2
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).