Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.9%
Nott'm Forest
27.1%
Draw
19.0%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.57
Nott'm Forest
vs
0.83
Derby
Markets
BTTS45.5%
Over 0.590.0%
Over 1.569.9%
Over 2.542.9%
Over 3.522.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.4%
1-1
12.7%
2-0
11.2%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
4.9%
3-1
4.8%
2-2
3.8%
0-2
3.1%
4-0
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).