Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.5%
Ponferradina
25.4%
Draw
26.1%
Fuenlabrada
Expected Goals (xG)
1.53
Ponferradina
vs
1.05
Fuenlabrada
Markets
BTTS50.8%
Over 0.592.5%
Over 1.572.7%
Over 2.547.6%
Over 3.526.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.1%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
8.9%
0-1
8.1%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.9%
3-1
4.7%
3-0
4.5%
0-2
4.2%
3-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).