Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →34.4%
Sutton
31.0%
Draw
34.6%
Chorley
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Sutton
vs
1.13
Chorley
Markets
BTTS46.8%
Over 0.588.4%
Over 1.566.9%
Over 2.539.1%
Over 3.519.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.6%
0-1
10.7%
1-0
10.7%
1-2
7.5%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
4.2%
1-3
2.8%
3-1
2.8%
0-3
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).