Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.9%
Moreirense
27.3%
Draw
23.8%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.55
Moreirense
vs
1.02
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS51.2%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.573.6%
Over 2.547.4%
Over 3.525.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.0%
1-0
11.0%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.2%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
4.9%
3-0
4.8%
2-2
4.8%
0-2
4.0%
3-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).