Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →68.9%
Aston Villa
18.3%
Draw
12.8%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.63
Aston Villa
vs
1.11
Luton
Markets
BTTS63.1%
Over 0.596.7%
Over 1.589.7%
Over 2.572.1%
Over 3.551.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.1%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
8.0%
1-1
7.9%
3-0
7.2%
1-0
5.3%
4-1
5.3%
2-2
5.0%
4-0
4.8%
3-2
4.4%
1-2
3.8%
0-0
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).