Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.4%
Dortmund
22.0%
Draw
14.6%
Mainz
Expected Goals (xG)
2.03
Dortmund
vs
0.88
Mainz
Markets
BTTS51.4%
Over 0.593.8%
Over 1.579.3%
Over 2.555.5%
Over 3.533.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.3%
1-1
10.5%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
7.6%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
4.3%
1-2
4.3%
0-1
4.1%
4-0
3.9%
4-1
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).