Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.9%
Stoke
28.3%
Draw
19.8%
Cardiff
Expected Goals (xG)
1.47
Stoke
vs
0.81
Cardiff
Markets
BTTS43.8%
Over 0.589.0%
Over 1.567.5%
Over 2.540.1%
Over 3.519.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.1%
1-1
13.1%
0-0
11.0%
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.4%
3-0
5.4%
1-2
5.0%
3-1
4.4%
2-2
3.7%
0-2
3.4%
4-0
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).