Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →85.4%
Manchester City
11.1%
Draw
3.5%
Leicester
Expected Goals (xG)
3.04
Manchester City
vs
0.56
Leicester
Markets
BTTS41.5%
Over 0.596.6%
Over 1.588.1%
Over 2.569.7%
Over 3.548.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
12.8%
2-0
12.6%
4-0
9.7%
1-0
7.7%
3-1
7.2%
2-1
7.1%
5-0
5.9%
4-1
5.4%
1-1
5.3%
0-0
3.4%
5-1
3.3%
3-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).