Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.2%
Benfica
33.4%
Draw
30.4%
Porto
Expected Goals (xG)
1.03
Benfica
vs
0.92
Porto
Markets
BTTS39.6%
Over 0.584.7%
Over 1.559.0%
Over 2.530.9%
Over 3.513.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
15.3%
1-1
14.5%
1-0
13.6%
0-1
12.1%
2-0
7.6%
2-1
6.9%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
3.2%
3-0
2.6%
3-1
2.4%
1-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).