Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.9%
Sabadell
26.1%
Draw
14.0%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Sabadell
vs
0.56
Lugo
Markets
BTTS32.9%
Over 0.587.0%
Over 1.560.2%
Over 2.533.2%
Over 3.514.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
19.4%
2-0
14.3%
0-0
13.0%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
7.4%
3-0
7.0%
3-1
3.9%
1-2
3.0%
4-0
2.6%
2-2
2.2%
0-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).