Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →6.0%
Chaves
13.3%
Draw
80.7%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.51
Chaves
vs
2.47
Benfica
Markets
BTTS36.2%
Over 0.595.2%
Over 1.579.4%
Over 2.557.1%
Over 3.534.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
15.5%
0-1
12.9%
0-3
12.8%
1-2
7.9%
0-4
7.9%
1-3
6.5%
1-1
6.1%
0-0
4.8%
1-4
4.0%
0-5
3.9%
1-0
2.9%
2-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).