Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.8%
Moreirense
26.0%
Draw
28.2%
Setubal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Moreirense
vs
1.01
Setubal
Markets
BTTS47.0%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.568.4%
Over 2.542.7%
Over 3.521.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.2%
1-1
12.2%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
8.7%
0-0
8.6%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
4.7%
2-2
4.5%
3-1
4.0%
3-0
4.0%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).