Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.7%
Southampton
26.7%
Draw
33.6%
Middlesbrough
Expected Goals (xG)
1.52
Southampton
vs
1.38
Middlesbrough
Markets
BTTS59.4%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.579.5%
Over 2.555.4%
Over 3.533.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.5%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
7.4%
0-1
6.6%
0-0
6.5%
2-0
6.3%
2-2
6.0%
0-2
5.3%
3-1
4.4%
1-3
3.7%
3-0
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).