Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.6%
Swindon
22.3%
Draw
14.1%
Alton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.73
Swindon
vs
0.66
Alton
Markets
BTTS39.5%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.568.7%
Over 2.542.9%
Over 3.522.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.1%
2-0
13.7%
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.8%
3-0
7.9%
0-1
6.4%
3-1
5.2%
1-2
3.5%
4-0
3.4%
2-2
3.0%
4-1
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).