Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.0%
Real Madrid
24.7%
Draw
19.2%
Ath Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
1.70
Real Madrid
vs
0.89
Ath Madrid
Markets
BTTS48.6%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.573.5%
Over 2.547.9%
Over 3.526.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.3%
1-1
11.8%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
7.9%
0-1
6.3%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
5.5%
1-2
5.1%
2-2
4.3%
0-2
3.0%
4-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).