Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →26.4%
Lazio
29.2%
Draw
44.3%
Atalanta
Expected Goals (xG)
0.86
Lazio
vs
1.20
Atalanta
Markets
BTTS40.0%
Over 0.587.5%
Over 1.560.7%
Over 2.533.9%
Over 3.515.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.6%
1-1
12.9%
0-0
12.5%
1-0
11.1%
0-2
9.2%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
5.6%
2-0
4.7%
0-3
3.7%
2-2
3.4%
1-3
3.2%
3-1
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).