Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.7%
Ipswich
24.6%
Draw
19.6%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.47
Ipswich
vs
0.73
Derby
Markets
BTTS38.9%
Over 0.589.9%
Over 1.563.4%
Over 2.537.6%
Over 3.518.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.3%
2-0
11.9%
1-1
10.9%
0-0
10.1%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.7%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
4.4%
3-1
4.3%
2-2
3.2%
0-2
3.0%
4-0
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).