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HHT: 20CSV

23 Mar 2019

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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21.0%
Cheltenham
25.5%
Draw
53.5%
Northampton

Expected Goals (xG)

0.81

Cheltenham

vs
1.48

Northampton

Markets

BTTS42.3%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.566.1%
Over 2.540.0%
Over 3.519.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
15.5%
1-1
11.7%
0-2
11.1%
0-0
9.7%
1-2
9.0%
1-0
8.7%
0-3
5.5%
2-1
4.9%
1-3
4.4%
2-2
3.6%
2-0
3.3%
0-4
2.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).