Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →25.2%
Cardiff
27.5%
Draw
47.4%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.05
Cardiff
vs
1.52
Derby
Markets
BTTS51.6%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.573.5%
Over 2.547.4%
Over 3.525.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
0-1
10.8%
1-2
9.3%
0-2
8.9%
0-0
8.6%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
6.4%
2-2
4.9%
1-3
4.7%
0-3
4.5%
2-0
4.2%
2-3
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).