Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.2%
Farense
27.9%
Draw
22.0%
Chaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.29
Farense
vs
0.74
Chaves
Markets
BTTS37.5%
Over 0.587.5%
Over 1.559.8%
Over 2.533.3%
Over 3.514.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.4%
0-0
12.5%
1-1
12.0%
2-0
10.9%
0-1
10.2%
2-1
8.1%
3-0
4.7%
1-2
4.7%
0-2
3.6%
3-1
3.5%
2-2
3.0%
4-0
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).