Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.8%
Alaves
27.1%
Draw
9.0%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Alaves
vs
0.34
Lugo
Markets
BTTS21.5%
Over 0.582.2%
Over 1.551.3%
Over 2.524.9%
Over 3.59.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
24.8%
0-0
17.8%
2-0
17.1%
1-1
8.3%
3-0
7.9%
0-1
6.2%
2-1
5.8%
4-0
2.7%
3-1
2.7%
1-2
1.4%
0-2
1.0%
2-2
1.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).