Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.2%
Burton
23.8%
Draw
21.0%
Port Vale
Expected Goals (xG)
1.53
Burton
vs
0.82
Port Vale
Markets
BTTS42.7%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.567.0%
Over 2.541.7%
Over 3.521.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.6%
2-0
11.2%
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
8.8%
0-0
8.6%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
4.9%
3-1
4.7%
2-2
3.7%
0-2
3.2%
4-0
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).