Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →82.2%
Real Madrid
11.7%
Draw
6.1%
Elche
Expected Goals (xG)
2.99
Real Madrid
vs
0.74
Elche
Markets
BTTS49.7%
Over 0.597.5%
Over 1.588.7%
Over 2.571.9%
Over 3.551.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.8%
3-0
10.7%
4-0
8.0%
2-1
7.9%
3-1
7.9%
1-0
7.1%
4-1
5.9%
1-1
5.4%
5-0
4.8%
5-1
3.5%
2-2
2.9%
3-2
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).