Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →11.7%
Moreirense
20.3%
Draw
68.0%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.76
Moreirense
vs
2.11
Benfica
Markets
BTTS47.2%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.578.5%
Over 2.554.6%
Over 3.532.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
12.6%
0-1
11.4%
1-1
9.7%
1-2
9.6%
0-3
8.9%
1-3
6.7%
0-0
6.3%
0-4
4.7%
1-0
3.8%
2-2
3.6%
1-4
3.5%
2-1
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).