Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.8%
Mainz
29.3%
Draw
25.9%
Union Berlin
Expected Goals (xG)
1.36
Mainz
vs
0.98
Union Berlin
Markets
BTTS47.3%
Over 0.589.4%
Over 1.568.8%
Over 2.541.4%
Over 3.520.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.8%
1-0
12.2%
0-0
10.6%
2-0
9.0%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.4%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
4.6%
2-2
4.3%
3-0
4.1%
3-1
4.0%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).