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AHT: 11CSV

26 Apr 2025 · 13:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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16.6%
Harrogate
24.8%
Draw
58.6%
Notts County

Expected Goals (xG)

0.67

Harrogate

vs
1.53

Notts County

Markets

BTTS37.8%
Over 0.589.4%
Over 1.564.1%
Over 2.537.7%
Over 3.518.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
17.4%
0-2
13.0%
1-1
10.9%
0-0
10.6%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
7.9%
0-3
6.6%
1-3
4.4%
2-1
3.8%
2-2
2.9%
0-4
2.5%
2-0
2.5%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).