Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →20.7%
Virginia Water
16.8%
Draw
62.5%
Bury
Expected Goals (xG)
1.59
Virginia Water
vs
2.76
Bury
Markets
BTTS74.3%
Over 0.598.9%
Over 1.592.9%
Over 2.580.8%
Over 3.563.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
7.8%
1-3
7.2%
2-2
6.2%
2-3
5.7%
1-1
5.5%
1-4
5.0%
0-2
4.9%
0-3
4.5%
2-1
4.5%
2-4
3.9%
0-1
3.8%
3-2
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).