Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.6%
Newport County
24.1%
Draw
38.3%
Cheltenham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.40
Newport County
vs
1.42
Cheltenham
Markets
BTTS56.7%
Over 0.594.6%
Over 1.576.8%
Over 2.553.7%
Over 3.531.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.3%
0-1
8.9%
1-0
8.8%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.3%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
2-0
5.8%
0-0
5.4%
1-3
4.0%
3-1
3.9%
0-3
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).