Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.7%
Bristol City
27.0%
Draw
21.3%
Cardiff
Expected Goals (xG)
1.60
Bristol City
vs
0.95
Cardiff
Markets
BTTS50.0%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.573.3%
Over 2.547.0%
Over 3.525.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.8%
1-0
11.5%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.8%
0-1
6.4%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.4%
3-1
5.1%
2-2
4.5%
0-2
3.5%
3-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).