Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →70.3%
Malaga
20.2%
Draw
9.6%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.88
Malaga
vs
0.52
Lugo
Markets
BTTS34.5%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.569.2%
Over 2.543.2%
Over 3.522.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.1%
2-0
16.0%
3-0
10.0%
0-0
8.9%
1-1
8.8%
2-1
8.4%
3-1
5.2%
0-1
4.8%
4-0
4.7%
4-1
2.5%
1-2
2.3%
2-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).