Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →73.2%
Notts County
18.8%
Draw
8.0%
Chorley
Expected Goals (xG)
2.16
Notts County
vs
0.58
Chorley
Markets
BTTS39.8%
Over 0.592.9%
Over 1.576.6%
Over 2.551.7%
Over 3.529.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.0%
1-0
13.2%
3-0
10.8%
1-1
8.8%
2-1
8.8%
0-0
7.1%
3-1
6.3%
4-0
5.8%
4-1
3.4%
0-1
3.1%
2-2
2.6%
5-0
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).