Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.9%
Derby
29.3%
Draw
33.9%
Millwall
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Derby
vs
1.21
Millwall
Markets
BTTS51.6%
Over 0.590.6%
Over 1.572.0%
Over 2.545.2%
Over 3.523.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.9%
1-0
9.5%
0-0
9.4%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.1%
2-2
5.0%
3-1
3.5%
1-3
3.1%
3-0
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).