Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.6%
Arouca
27.3%
Draw
32.1%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
1.22
Arouca
vs
1.05
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS45.3%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.565.7%
Over 2.539.7%
Over 3.519.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.2%
1-1
12.6%
0-1
11.4%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
8.1%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
4.2%
3-1
3.3%
3-0
3.1%
1-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).